At the end of July 2009 there were a reported 892 Capesize dry bulk carriers in the global fleet. At the same point there were another 770 Capesizes on order of which around half are due for delivery in the next 12 months. That's 47% of the current fleet due for delivery by mid-2010. Let's assume optimistically that due to contract cancellations, delivery slippage and scrapping only half of that is delivered. We now have a 23% increase in supply. Markets are beginning to wake up to the fact that recent demand has been a result of artificial government stimulus spending, restocking and the reduction is domestic mining production in China (see video). In the absence of continued spending where is a 23% increase in demand going to come from?
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